Steve's Read · August 31, 2026
Markets Shrug Off Mideast Strikes — Today's Economic Data Matters More
Desk lean
BEARISH
Short-term trends point down and options markets look too calm for the risk of a real Gulf crisis, so we're cautious on TQQQ even though the bigger uptrend is intact.
Watch: ISM's cost index — the only path oil reaches stocks · Whether the fear gauge stays calm despite active fighting · TQQQ vs its 20-day average near $72.42 · Confirmation of the Kharg Island strike, any oil price gap
US forces struck Larak Island, Iran hit two US bases in Jordan, and Tehran claims full control of the Hormuz Strait. Markets aren't buying a crisis: oil is down 4.3% this week, tanker traffic is up 30%, and the options market's fear gauge fell 23% to 19.92. Washington's Venezuela oil deal and reserve refill are seen as offsetting the supply risk. Today's ISM Manufacturing and job openings data likely move TQQQ more than the war news.
For TQQQ, this looks like a tech pullback, not a war trade. The recent trend is sharply negative, but TQQQ is still 17% above its long-term average — a dip inside an uptrend, not a breakdown. Trading costs are too wide for a fair price today, so we aren't forcing a trade.
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