Steve's Read · September 4, 2026
Oil war escalates, yields hit 2025 highs — TQQQ still holds its ground
Legacy public analysis
NEUTRAL
The war is a real headwind, but the market keeps absorbing it, options stay cheap, and there's no rotation out of tech — so we see no clear directional edge yet.
Watch: Does TQQQ close green today · Semis: Broadcom weakness vs Nvidia strength · Crude holding its 8% weekly gain into the holiday · Markets closed Monday for Labor Day
Iran's conflict is escalating: a strike killed civilians, Iran fired on U.S. bases, tankers are being hit in the Strait of Hormuz. Crude is up 8% this week, diesel hit a record, and the 10-year yield is at its highest since January 2025. QQQ closed the week up 0.52%. The damage came from Broadcom, down 5% on weak guidance. Next Friday's consumer prices (CPI) report is forecast up 0.4%, versus 0.1% prior.
Options are historically cheap despite the war and next week's jobs report — actual price swings have stayed calmer than average. Energy is rallying without tech losing ground, a broad rally rather than rotation out of tech. We want a strong green close in TQQQ — tied to Broadcom, not the war — before turning more positive.
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